September 9, 2023

Investment Thesis Simplified: Meta


  1. Meta has room to grow its Family of Apps user base to 5B+ in the next decade.
  2. Facebook (the app; not the company itself) is an unrivaled monopoly, and I believe the app to be "the most wholesome app on earth;" by which I mean it is the app where people go to engage with family and friends (looking at baby photos, sharing family reunion photos, etc.), not with celebrities, entrepreneurs, and, oftentimes, unrealistically attractive people.
  3. WhatsApp is an unrivaled monopoly for global communications. I worked for the U.S. Army this weekend, and I was reminded that the U.S. Army runs the entirety of its mobile communications on WhatsApp (while not in the field of course).
  4. Instagram operates in a duopoly with TikTok (which is owned and, quite likely, at least in part, operated by the CCP, which should be noted), and Instagram has been gaining share here.
  5. Meta has ~$53B in cash, robust free cash flow, and ~$18B in convertible debt, the raising of which I've praised effusively in the past.

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